Thursday, August 7, 2008

8/8/08

Economics

A not very optimistic assessment of the current state of the US economy:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/794801a8-63e8-11dd-844f-0000779fd18c,dwp_uuid=13e90304-4dc0-11dd-820e-000077b07658.html

The rally in the dollar continues:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/08/king-dollar-rally-continues.html

The initial jobless claims reported yesterday did not make great reading; and as you know, the employment numbers have been worrisome for me. But take a look at this analysis (absolute must read). Maybe the jobless claims data need to be revised.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/08/adjusted-for-growth-in-labor-force.html

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

Another volatile day, yesterday; once again in a single day’s action, the Averages (DJIA 11431; S&P 1266) have moved from testing a resistance level (the January 2008 intraday lows) on the upside to approaching support levels (the July 2008 to present up trend: DJIA circa 11344, S&P circa 1258) on the downside). That leaves us watching, waiting and thankful for our 20% cash position.

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The percentage of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/08/percentage-of-s.html

Fundamental

Having commented yesterday’s Morning Call about how well the financial stocks performed generally on Wednesday in the face of the Freddie Mac news, they reacted terribly to the American International Group and Citicorp news (respectively, horrible earnings and a settlement with regulators to provide liquidity to retail customers for illiquid securities). That certainly squashes for the moment the notion that the financial stocks may have most of the bad news reflected in their prices.

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Manulife Financial (MFC-$35) has fallen below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, MFC is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. The Dividend Growth Portfolio already owns this stock so no further action will be taken.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MFC

The stock prices of Fastenal (FAST-$49) and SAP (SAP-$58) have traded above the upper boundary of their Buy Value Range. Therefore, they are being Removed from the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio will continue to Hold these stocks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SAP

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

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