4/23/08

Economics

A graphic look at existing home sales (reported yesterday):

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/economy/index.html

fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.).

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9770.html

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

An update from Iraq the Model:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/al-qaeda-in-iraq-determined-but-desperate/

The argument for talking with Iran:

http://www.slate.com/id/2189372/

The Market

Technical

Yesterday after trading down to the 12655 area, the DJIA closed (12720) right on the former (?) November low resistance level (12722) which, if the DJIA has broken out of the late 2007 to April 2008 trading range, would become a support level--and that is precisely what seems to have happened (I am not enough of technical purist to argue over 2 DJIA points). So from a technical standpoint, this was a positive performance. Of course, it was only one day’s action, so I not getting jiggy about the likelihood that yesterday was a defining technical moment. But I have to give credit where it is due and I am mildly impressed. (Remember the S&P has yet to rise above its 2007 November low.)

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ETF charts of the oil complex:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/energy-etfs-soa.html

Crisis indicators cool:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/crisis-indicato.html

Fundamental

Subscriber Alert

Continuing our strategy of committing cash during the dips in stock prices, this morning at the Market open, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will purchase additional shares in Manulife Financial (MFC-$38), Brown Forman (BF.B-$70) and Wells Fargo (WFC-$29) and the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will purchase additional shares in Franklin Resources (BEN-$94).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MFC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BF.B

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WFC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BEN

In addition, the stock price of Rockwell Collins (COL-$61) has re-entered its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List. At the Market open this morning, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will Buy an additional one fifth position in COL.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=COL

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Sherwin Williams (Dividend Growth Buy List) reported first quarter earnings per share of $.64 versus expectations of $.59 and $.83 recorded in the comparable 2007 quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SHW

VF Corp (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter operating earnings per share of $1.33 versus $1.17 reported in 2007’s first quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VFC

A positive article on ExxonMobil (Dividend Growth Portfolio):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/73551-exxon-mobil-dividend-aristocrat

A positive article on Emerson Electric (Dividend Growth Portfolio):

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/04/22/emerson-strikes-the-right-balance-between-growth-and-safety/

More Cash in Investors’ Hands