Tuesday, March 4, 2008

3/4/08

Economics

Manufacturing, productivity and NAFTA:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/03/increases-in-productivity-have-caused.html

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

This is not very encouraging:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/would-you-buy-t.html

A chart of the dollar:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/dollar-collapse.html

Fundamental

After the Market’s lousy performance last Friday, I was hoping for a big follow on sell off yesterday that would successfully test the January lows and more clearly establish that a bottom had been made. And it looked like that might happen when we got some disappointing economic data (January construction spending and the Institute for Supply Management’s February manufacturing index) near the opening Bell. But in the end, those unimpressive economic stats did little to move stock prices.

That is a bit disappointing because I do think that the January lows are going to be tested and I would just as soon get it over with. Until that happens, I will be concentrating on the poorer performing stocks in our Portfolio. The challenge will be to eliminate those that are trading below their Buy Value Range but above their Stop Loss Price and are unable to trade back into their Buy Value Range when stock prices rally--much like Quest Diagnostics, a position I recently eliminated in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. I will continue providing lists of these stocks in The Morning Call.

Year end consensus Fair Value for the S&P:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/sp-500-price-ta.html

A look at international revenues as a percent of total revenues by S&P sector:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/earnings-here-v.html

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Bank of Nova Scotia (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $.82 versus $1.01 in the comparable 2006 quarter. Currency translation and turmoil in the financial markets were blamed for the shortfall.

Staples (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $.47 versus $.46 recorded in the 2006 fourth quarter.

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

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