2/14/08

Economics

A look at the profits of oil companies:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=287712499994936

Politics

Domestic

McCain and Obama on the war against radical Islam:

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/2193b3a7-9fc4-457f-9b64-bf63e330a5ba

McCain, Clinton and Obama’s vote on the FISA bill which the Senate passed yesterday:

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/02/13/the-senate-interrogation-ban-roll-call-vote/

Obama’s economic agenda:

http://www.gop.com/obamaspendometer.htm

Obama on free trade:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/02/obama-on-nafta.html

International War Against Radical Islam

Top terrorist dead:

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/bdb9d2ad-b39c-4a24-b0e1-19c838af7b29

Good news from Iraq:

http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2008/02/key-to-iraqi-reconciliation.html

The Market

Technical

The DJIA closed yesterday (12552) above the August 2007 intraday low (12500) and just below the uptrend line off the 1982 low (12562). Technically speaking when stock prices fall, former support levels (e.g. 12500 and 12562) tend to act as new resistance level; so how stock prices perform in the next couple days will say much about the underlying strength of the Market--technically speaking.

A technical look at the Market (Part II):

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_htmlrmm/rmoney/technicalanalysis/10403278.html

Fundamental

Just about the time that I was ready to write the consumer off and succumb to the recessionistas, the January retail sales number reported yesterday surprised everyone to the upside (up .3% versus estimates of down .4%). Not that the internal make up of this data is all bright and cheery; but even under the worst interpretation, the slowing in consumer spending apparently isn’t as bad as some thought.

OK, I lied. Here is the worst interpretation:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/retail-sales-ga.html

A kinder, gentler look:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/02/consumers-havent-given-up-just-yet.html

Judging by the Market reaction, investors liked this data, suggesting that economic expectations have been for a weaker economy than we will ultimately get. To be sure at this point, ‘suggesting’ is the operative word.

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Another bit of bad news from out of the blue yesterday--the NY state attorney general is investigated UnitedHealth (UNH-$46) for allegedly manipulating patient reimbursement rates; as a result the stock declined about 3%. The stock ($46.35) traded slightly below the lower end of its Buy Value Range ($47.00) but well above its Stop Loss price ($40.00). I am working on an assessment of the validity and potential magnitude of any liability, assuming that there is any; until then the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will continue to Hold this stock as long as it trades well above its Stop Loss Price.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UNH

A positive write up on Coca Cola (Dividend Growth Portfolio):

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_htmlrmm/rmoney/investing/10403238.html

Penn Virginia Resource Ptrs (High Yield Portfolio) reported fourth quarter and full year operating earnings per unit of $.33 and $1.82 respectively versus $.19 and $1.61 recorded in the comparable 2006 periods. PVR also announced that its proven coal reserves rose 7% and oil and gas reserves increased 40%. It also raised its quarterly distribution per share from $.40 to $.44.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PVR

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