Economics
Recent Data
Other
A prescription for what ails us:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/how-to-repair-t.html
Politics
Domestic
More on ACORN:
http://online.wsj.com/article/john_fund_on_the_trail.html
Dodd and Countrywide:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360116724221681.html
McGovern and the Employee Free Choice Act:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjZhN2M4NTY4ZGQ3YmQxYWQyZDQ0OWE2M2U3NjAxYWU=
McCain and Fannie Mae:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/10/021750.php
International War Against Radical Islam
An update on
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/in-todays-iraq-the-times-are-constantly-changing/
The Market
Technical/ Fundamental
A note of caution:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/10/indicator-update-for-october-13th.html
********************************
Friday was an unusual day. It opened up down 600 DJIA points then rallied big, faded, rallied, then faded at the end. I thought after the first hour that we had seen the capitulation. Certainly, the volatility index (spiked over 70) and the volume (heavy) would argue that we have. But instead of being off to the races after that morning flush, the sellers kept coming back--hence the down close marked by the continued relentless selling of the groups that heretofore have performed the best in this bear market (consumer staples and healthcare).
I said Friday morning that we are in the middle of the end and by the close Friday, we were that much closer to the end. I continue to believe that the key to the end is the completion of the forced liquidation of the hedge funds. While Friday’s action suggests that it is not over, the magnitude of the selling may be tapering off. That is very positive. The question is, are we at the point where a sufficient number of buyers step in and simply overwhelm the remaining sellers?
We will know soon enough. In the meantime, the fundamentals of credit market continue to improve as governments world wide appear to be doing their best to bolster confidence among credit market participants.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/fed-federal-reserve-and-other-central.html
Our Portfolios ended Friday with a cash position between 35-40%.
Here is the strategy for today.
It looks like a strong open, so our Portfolios will sell a small bit of some stocks where there doesn’t seem to have any support near term. But the cash generated will be reinvested immediately.
Next I want to put 20-25% (10% of the total Portfolio) of our Portfolios’ cash to work (that will get cash down to 25-30%). Our Portfolios will buy a part of that at the open, then average in during the day.
If we get another big flush, I will spend another 20% cash (5% of the Portfolio) before the close (that will take cash to 20-25%). If I decide to do that I will alert you.
Our Portfolios I will be buying stocks whose rate of price decline has been much slower in the last couple of days than the Market in general and/or stocks that are at or near multi year support levels.
Subscriber Alert
Here are the names our Portfolios will be Buying:
Dividend Growth Portfolio: Federated Investors (FII), T Rowe Price (TROW), Boeing (BA), Canon (CAJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Aflac (AFL), Home Depot9HD), Johnson Controls (JCI), Praxair (PX (PX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), MDU Resources (MDU), Nucor (NUE), Abbott Labs (ABT), VF Corp (VFC).
High Yield Portfolio: Rayonier (RYN), Quaker Chemicals (KWR), Realty Income Trust (O), Pacer Int’l (PACR), Sanofi Aventis (NY-new name being Added to Buy List), Alliance Resources (ARLP), Cato Corp (CTR), Worthington Ind (WOR).
Aggressive Growth Portfolio: Bucyrus Int’l (BUCY), Matthews Corp (MATW), Amphenol (APH), Qualcomm (QCOM), Blackrock (BLK), Franklin Resources (BEN), Sigma Aldrich (SIAL), American Vanguard (AVD), Balchem (BCPC), Accenture (ACN), Ecolabs (ECL), Factset Research (FDS), SAP (SAP), Smith Int’l (SII), Donaldson (DCI), SEI Investments (SEIC), XTO Energy (XTO), Walgreen (WAG), Sun Hydraulics (SNHY, Microsoft (MSFT), CH Robinson (CHRW), Mastercard (MA), Becton Dickinson (BDX).
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
More Cash in Investors’ Hands
No comments:
Post a Comment