Economics
Recent Data
A graphic look at the rebound in consumer confidence:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/09/consumer-confidence-rebounds.html
Other
fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.). New estimates of the federal budget deficit are not positive:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2057.cfm
This is a great analysis of how economic and stock market performance varies under Democrats versus Republicans:
http://www.poorandstupid.com/2008_09_07_chronArchive.asp#5994601770590690716
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s report to Congress on speculation in oil:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=306024468188608
A look inside the home foreclosure statistics:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/09/excluding-az-ca-fl-mi-and-nv.html
Some historical perspective on bank failures:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/09/were-still-long-way-from-real-banking.html
Are our Markets too de-regulated?
Politics
Domestic
Palin and the Bush Doctrine, courtesy of ABC:
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/7656b78a-a090-4a56-9bf5-0e37bdaff80a
Palin and the bridge to nowhere:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2FiMjBlNWE0ZTJhNDBjZWExYzA2M2M5MWZkYmFlN2I=
International War Against Radical Islam
The Market
Technical
Technical update from Traderfeed:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/09/indicator-update-for-september-15th.html
Fundamental
As I am sure you know, today is going to be a wild ride. Lehman Bros is declaring bankruptcy, Bank of America is buying Merrill Lynch, American International Group is begging the Fed for a $40 billion bridge loan and oil prices are off $5 a barrel suggesting that the forced liquidation we witnessed last week is not over. Markets around the world are off 4-5% . Clearly my assertion in last week’s Closing Bell that the financial stocks in general appeared to have bottomed will get a stiff challenge. At the moment about the only good news is that our Portfolios have a 20-22% cash position.
The big question on my mind today will be, assuming the Market sells off big initially, will there be a rebound and if so, will that constitute the emotional sell off/test of the July lows that we have been looking for? I hope that we have an answer to that by tomorrow morning. In the meantime, remember our Portfolios own good quality, financially sound (even our holdings of financial stocks) companies that raise their dividends consistently, we have a cash position that provides stability of capital and a reserve to allow us to buy stocks of good companies inexpensively and a Sell Discipline that will help us continue to preserve capital.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Walgreen (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) has made an offer to acquire Long’s Drug Stores for $3 billion in cash.
More Cash in Investors’ Hands
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