7/2/08

Economics

More on those pesky oil speculators:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/lets_shoot_the_speculators.html

More chart porn on speculation in the oil pits:

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/07/01/if_congress_sav.html

A pictorial on the unemployment rate:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/07/great-media-depression.html

Politics

Domestic

McCain on immigration:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTk1ZjE5N2Q2MzQ2MTNiMTZlNzViNGQ5NDUyYTI0ZTQ=

This is a background article on what went on in the public housing arena in Obama’s district when he served as a state senator: It probably won’t help his cause if the main stream media ever decide to focus on it:

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/06/27/grim_proving_ground_for_obamas_housing_policy/?page=full

Obama on taxes:

http://blog.heritage.org/2008/07/01/morning-bell-the-tax-man-cometh/

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

The last two days’ pause in the decline in stock prices has been one that, as we used to say, ‘refreshes’. But the question is, is the worst over? I think not. For one, neither the volatility index nor volume are anywhere near levels commonly associated with a ‘selling climax’; further, while the major indices have recovered, it has been very weak--certainly not a indication of a turn around in investor sentiment; plus there are still whole sectors of the Market still getting pounded; further, there is nothing on the horizon to alter the economics of the primary forces driving stock prices down--rising oil prices, rising inflation.

Could the Fed get tough tomorrow? Yes. Could the political class alter its economic, social agenda? Yes. Could this be the beginning of a ‘U’ shaped bottom and not the more violent ‘V’ bottom? Yes. Could we get a big upswing today (soon) making the last four trading days a ‘V’ bottom but without the extremes in volatility and volume? Yes. And if any of these scenarios occur, we will miss the first 1-5% of the rebound. But right now the game is defense, defense, defense.

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Most of the talking heads have been focusing on the S&P’s ‘bear market thresh hold’ (i.e. down 20% from its high). Take a look at the various Market sectors have performed:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/07/average-stock-d.html

Mid year projections from strategists on year end S&P close:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/07/mid-year-strate.html

Fundamental

Subscriber Alert

At the Market open this morning:

The Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell additional shares in Canadian National (CNI-$47) and the final portion of its holding in UPS (UPS-$61). Now at a 22% cash position.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CNI

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UPS

Visit www.strategic-stock-investments.com, learn about our dividend growth strategy, sign up and see what we are buying/selling in our other Portfolios

Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge

Portfolio 1 (90.7): Sold: Canon

Bought: Northern Trust

Positions: Automatic Data Products, Johnson Controls, WalMart, Northern Trust

Portfolio 2 (90.1%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: Franklin Resources, Chevron, SAP

XTO Energy

Portfolio 3 (94.1%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: XTO Energy, Smith Int’l. ConocoPhillips, SAP

Portfolio 4 (88.1%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: Suncor, Chevron, Peabody Energy, SAP

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

A positive comment on BP Ltd (High Yield Portfolio):

http://www.zacks.com/research/screening/tracks/highlight.php?id=4458

More Cash in Investors’ Hands