Economics
protectionism (Free trade is a major positive for world and
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/the_wrong_trade_war.html
fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.). Republicans still don’t get the picture:
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/04/mcconnell_votes_to_kill_antiea.php
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/1b47ac0d-0fec-4b46-bbfd-da1b485f4231
The Market
Technical
Relative performance of stocks versus bonds:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/stocks-vs-bonds.html
Fundamental
Yesterday we got more clarity on the resolution of the credit crisis (the CEO of JP Morgan said that we were 70-80% through the sub prime problems; NTRS and WFC reported better than expected earnings) and the economy (March industrial production--better than expected, March core consumer price index in line with estimates and still at the top end of the Fed’s acceptable range, the latest Fed beige book report). My bottom line is that this latest information makes me more confident that stock prices in general have seen their lows than that the likelihood that they will trade above their November 2007 low resistance level, i.e. stay patient and don’t chase stock prices up.
A chart on industrial production:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/04/industrial-production.html
The above referred to Fed beige book (a once every six weeks anecdotal look at the economy) report’s conclusions were (1) the economy is weakening, (2) corporate profit margins are shrinking, (3) pricing pressures are rising, (4) wage demands are starting to increase. So it was mostly bad but there was nothing in the narrative that we didn’t already know; importantly, the tone in this report in no way implied that the economy was falling off a cliff as the bears would have us believe.
Subscriber Alert
The stock price of State Street Corp (STT-$69) has fallen below the upper boundary of its
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STT
The stock price of General Electric (GE-$32) remains between its
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GE
The stock price of Quaker Chemical (KWR-$32) has again traded into its
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KWR
For the same reasons discussed above regarding General Electric, the High Yield Portfolio will sell one quarter of its position in Reynolds American (RAI-$58) at the Market open this morning.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RAI
The stock price of Amphenol (APH-$42) has risen above the upper boundary of its
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APH
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Wells Fargo (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $.60 versus expectations of $.57 and $.66 reported in the comparable 2007 quarter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WFC
A new patent issued for ParkerVision (10 Bagger):
A positive write up on Sysco (Dividend Growth Portfolio):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/72672-6-reasons-to-like-sysco-covered-calls
United Technologies (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.03 versus expectations of $1.01 and $.82 recorded in the first quarter of 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UTX
Reliance Steel (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.46 versus $1.46 reported in the comparable 2007 quarter. The company raised its dividend per share form $.32 to $.40. It also bought back 15 million shares last quarter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RS
Blackrock (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported its first quarter earnings per share of $1.82 versus $1.48 in the prior year’s first quarter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BLK
More Cash in Investors’ Hands
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