Thursday, April 17, 2008

4/17/08

Economics

protectionism (Free trade is a major positive for world and US economic growth.).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/the_wrong_trade_war.html

fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.). Republicans still don’t get the picture:

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/04/mcconnell_votes_to_kill_antiea.php

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

Iran in Iraq--more to come:

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/1b47ac0d-0fec-4b46-bbfd-da1b485f4231

The Market

Technical

Relative performance of stocks versus bonds:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/stocks-vs-bonds.html

Fundamental

Yesterday we got more clarity on the resolution of the credit crisis (the CEO of JP Morgan said that we were 70-80% through the sub prime problems; NTRS and WFC reported better than expected earnings) and the economy (March industrial production--better than expected, March core consumer price index in line with estimates and still at the top end of the Fed’s acceptable range, the latest Fed beige book report). My bottom line is that this latest information makes me more confident that stock prices in general have seen their lows than that the likelihood that they will trade above their November 2007 low resistance level, i.e. stay patient and don’t chase stock prices up.

A chart on industrial production:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/04/industrial-production.html

The above referred to Fed beige book (a once every six weeks anecdotal look at the economy) report’s conclusions were (1) the economy is weakening, (2) corporate profit margins are shrinking, (3) pricing pressures are rising, (4) wage demands are starting to increase. So it was mostly bad but there was nothing in the narrative that we didn’t already know; importantly, the tone in this report in no way implied that the economy was falling off a cliff as the bears would have us believe.

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of State Street Corp (STT-$69) has fallen below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. The Dividend Growth Portfolio will not Buy shares in STT at this time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STT

The stock price of General Electric (GE-$32) remains between its Buy Value Range and below every one of the five technical markers I have been monitoring in spite of the stellar Market performance of the last couple of days. Staying with our strategy of eliminating the poorest performing stocks in our Portfolios, today at the Market open the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell one quarter of its GE position.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GE

The stock price of Quaker Chemical (KWR-$32) has again traded into its Sell Half Range. At the Market open this morning, the High Yield Portfolio will Sell another ten percent of its KWR holding.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KWR

For the same reasons discussed above regarding General Electric, the High Yield Portfolio will sell one quarter of its position in Reynolds American (RAI-$58) at the Market open this morning.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RAI

The stock price of Amphenol (APH-$42) has risen above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Therefore, it is being Removed from the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio will continue to Hold APH.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APH

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Wells Fargo (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $.60 versus expectations of $.57 and $.66 reported in the comparable 2007 quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WFC

A new patent issued for ParkerVision (10 Bagger):

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={B763330B-16E4-462A-AE60-9D7023290DC6}&siteid=nbs

A positive write up on Sysco (Dividend Growth Portfolio):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/72672-6-reasons-to-like-sysco-covered-calls

United Technologies (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.03 versus expectations of $1.01 and $.82 recorded in the first quarter of 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UTX

Reliance Steel (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.46 versus $1.46 reported in the comparable 2007 quarter. The company raised its dividend per share form $.32 to $.40. It also bought back 15 million shares last quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RS

Blackrock (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported its first quarter earnings per share of $1.82 versus $1.48 in the prior year’s first quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BLK

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

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