3/31/08

Economics

A brief explanation of the new Fed lending programs:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/forms-of-federa.html

Politics

Domestic

Obama on the capital gains tax:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Obama_talks_capgains_rate_with_CNBC.html

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

To state the obvious, today is the end of the quarter which in Market terms usually means ‘window dressing’--portfolio managers buying more of their winning investments (running the prices up) in an attempt to look even better to their investors. However, given the huge short position on the Street (pointed out in one of last week’s Morning Calls), it may that those fund managers will be pressing the price down of those stocks that they are short. The point here is that there are a number of non fundamental forces at work that will influence today’s Market action; and therefore little should be inferred were stock prices to move big in either direction.

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The Intrade odds on where the DJIA closes in 2008:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/intrade-year-en.html

More on volatility:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/volatility-spik.html

Fundamental

Subscriber Alert

At the Market open this morning:

The High Yield Portfolio will Buy a one tenth position in RPM Int’l (RPM-$20)and a one fifth position in Realty Income Trust (O-$26).

The Dividend Growth Portfolio will Buy a one tenth position in Manulife Financial (MFC-$37).

In addition, the stock price of Wells Fargo & Co has risen back into its Buy Value Range and is Selling above three of the five technical markers which I have been monitoring. With many of the financial stocks continuing to get crushed, I recognize that Buying this stock back appears risky; especially after I tried this once before with poor results. However, with my growing confidence that the January intraday low was the bottom for this Market cycle and the improved relative price performance of WFC, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will buy a one fifth position in Wells Fargo at this morning’s Market open.

The stock price of Donaldson (DCI-$40) has fallen below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio already owns this stock; however, at the Market open this morning it will Buy an additional one tenth position in DCI.

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A look at first quarter corporate earnings:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/sector-eps-grow.html

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands