1/28/08

Economics

How about an optimistic economic forecast?

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/1/23/a-bit-of-cheer-dow-15000-by-year-end.html

OK, two positive outlooks:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120147855494820719.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

a rising tax and regulatory burden (Government has never proven that it could solve economic problems efficiently or satisfactorily.)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120122126173315299.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Politics

Domestic

Romney on taxes:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjdmZmM2MzFiYzEzYmNjN2MxZDUwYjcxYjY5ZmUxYjA=

Huckabee and Obama on foreign policy:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1200572509823&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

McCain on immigration:

http://www.slate.com/id/2182933/#drmexicofirst

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

Fundamental

Some interesting data on relative valuation by industry sector:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/01/sector-pe-ratio.html

Also an historical look at Market performance following big intraday reversals—like last Tuesday and Wednesday:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/01/recent-bespoke.html

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Abbott Labs (ABT-$55) has fallen below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, ABT is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. Since the Dividend Growth Portfolio already owns this stock, no additional shares will be purchased.

Watch Lists**

Dividend Growth Watch List: Avery Dennison, Bank of Nova Scotia, Brown Forman, Canadian Nat’l RR, Chevron, Clorox, Emerson Electric, Genuine Parts, General Electric, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll Rand, Johnson Controls, Johnson and Johnson, 3M, Manulife Financial, McGraw Hill, MDU Resources, Proctor and Gamble, Sysco, T Rowe Price, UPS, United Technologies, VF Corp.,

High Yield Watch List: A.J Gallagher, Alliance Resources, Buckeye Pipeline, LCA-Vision, Plains All American, Quaker Chemical, Reynolds American, Rayonier, Realty Income Trust, US Bancorp.

Aggressive Growth Buy List: Accenture, American Eagle Outfitters, American Vanguard, Amphenol, Avon Products, Best Buy, Bucyrus Int’l, CME Group, Donaldson, Eaton Vance, Expeditors Int’l, Factset Research, Fastenal, Franklin Resources, Landstar, Luxoticca, Mastercard, Nordstrom, Quest Diagnostic, Rockwell Collins, Ross Stores, SAP, Schwab, Simpson Manufacturing, Staples,; and of course I want to re-build the holdings: US Global Shares-Gold

**For the benefit of new subscribers, I started using Watch Lists during severe Market declines. These lists include stocks on our Buy Lists but also equities whose prices has fallen below both their Buy Value Range and their Stop Loss Price but whose Valuation Model (following additional homework on my part) didn’t change appreciably. Historically, the stocks in this latter group will generally trade back into their Valuation Range, sometimes quickly; and I want to be sure I catch that latter group when they do so.

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Donaldson (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) raised its quarterly dividend per share from $.10 to $.11.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DCI

Medivation (10 Bagger) is initiating Phase III trials for Dimebon:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={D68FD113-DCA4-4CD9-906A-742FE3AD7E35}&siteid=nbs

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MDVN

Verizon (High Yield Portfolio) reported fourth quarter operating profit of $.62 in line with expectations and unchanged from the comparable 2006 quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VZ

More Cash in Investors’ Hands