Wednesday, October 24, 2007

10/24/07

Economics

fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.). Republicans still haven’t learned their lesson:

http://www.examiner.com/a-1004467%7EOink__Oink__Senate_Republicans_still_slobbering_over_earmarks.html

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

Tony Blankley on US policy failure in Turkey and its potential impact on the war against radical Islam:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/TonyBlankley/2007/10/24/from_the_bosporus_to_the_himalayas_what_a_mess

The Market

Technical

Fundamental

The Dividend Growth Portfolio will Buy the second half of its position in Canon at the Market open today.

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

MDU Resources (Dividend Growth Buy List) reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.10 versus $.60 recorded in the comparable period in 2006.

EPS: 2006 $1.75, 2007 $1.70, 2008 $1.80; DVD: $.56 YLD 2.1%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MDU

C.R. Bard (Dividend Growth Buy List) reported third quarter earnings per share of $.96 versus expectations of $.92 and $.82 recorded in the comparable period in 2006.

EPS: 2006 $3.29, 2007 $3.75, 2008 $4.25; DVD: $.58 YLD 0.7%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BCR

As a reminder to all, BCR is in the Dividend Growth Portfolio despite its very low current yield because when it was purchased, the stock fit the dividend yield criteria (at least a 1.5% yield). Since that time the stock has appreciated to the point where the yield on the current price is quite low; however, the SSI Sell Half Discipline states that while a Portfolio is required to take profits, it continues to Hold a stock as long as the underlying company meets the SSI Quality Disciplines (which BCR does). The reason: the Dividend Growth Portfolio has taken over $60,000 in profits out of an original $30,000 investment in BCR with the remaining holding still valued at $38,000; further, this stock now yields over 5% on cost--and it grows every year.

A.J. Gallagher (High Yield Portfolio) reported third quarter earnings per share of $.54 versus expectations of $.63 and $.51 in 2006’s third quarter.

EPS: 2006 $1.40, 2007 $1.75, 2008 $1.80; DVD: $1.24 YLD 4.3%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AJG

WalMart is holding its normal two day analysts meeting yesterday and today. It didn’t get off to a great start. In the audio of yesterday’s meeting, WMT management seemed unnecessarily irritated by (legitimate) questions from analysts; and following that meeting, I am told that they made derogatory comments about some analysts plus they didn’t attend their own sponsored luncheon for the analysts. I can’t tell you the damage a company, even a great company, can do to the value of its enterprise when it antagonizes the primary messengers of its story to investors. Their adversarial responses at the meeting was bad enough; but if the post meeting actions above prove true (and we will know soon enough), it is probably a near term stock killer.

In my opinion, it is hard enough when a company/stock experiences problems (which, aside from a general Market decline, is usually the circumstances when a stock hits its Buy Value Range in our Price Discipline) sorting out whether the problem is self imposed or, if externally caused, whether management’s response is proper (and deserves our patience) or not. But it becomes almost impossible when those you depend on (the analysts) to help determine the true cause of the difficulty become emotionally biased as a result of inappropriate management behavior. WMT’s stock is 8-9% above the lower boundary of its Buy Range, so I have the luxury of time to get some more input on the tone of this meeting. But in the schizophrenic Market that we are in, if management has made itself a problem, it is one that we don’t need.

A positive write up on Bank of Nova Scotia (Dividend Growth Portfolio):

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/51138-scotiabanks-international-division-impresses-blackmont-capital

Praxair (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported third quarter earnings per share of $.94 versus expectations of $.91 and $.75 in 2006’s third quarter.

EPS: 2006 $3.00, 2007 $3.55, 2008 $4.00; DVD: $1.20 YLD 1.6%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PX

General Dynamics (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.34 versus $1.08 in 2006’s third quarter.

EPS: 2006 $4.20, 2007 $4.95, 2008 $5.55; DVD: $1.10 YLD 1.6%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GD

ConocoPhillips (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported third quarter earnings per share of $2.23 versus expectations of $2.17 and $2.31 in 2006’s third quarter.

EPS: 2006 $9.99, 2007 $9.35, 2008 $9.40; DVD: $1.64 YLD 2.0%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=COP

Quest Diagnostic (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported third quarter operating earnings per share of $.77 versus $.80 in 2006’s third quarter. Remember DGX is recovering from the loss of a major contract which was expected to have a much greater impact than it has to date.

EPS: 2006 $3.22, 2007 $2.90, 2008 $3.35; DVD: $.40 YLD 0.7%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DGX

McGraw Hill (Dividend Growth Portfolio) announced a 35 million share buy back.

EPS: 2006 $2.56, 2007 $3.05, 2008 $3.45; DVD: $.82 YLD 1.5%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MHP

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

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