Tuesday, June 26, 2007

June 26, 2007

Economics

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

Iranian troops in Iraq:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070625232254.etwt6z5u&show_article=1

The Market

Technical

After a spectacular start, the DJIA remained below 13400. We’ll give it another day or so to trade back above 13400 before we write it off as a support level. But we are now watching 13266 on the DJIA and 1490 on the S&P for indications of direction.

Fundamental

Thanks to the federal government’s (1) munificent agricultural policy, subsidies abound and (2) enlightened energy policy, taxpayers, directly and indirectly, are paying $100 a barrel for ethanol instead of the price gouging $68 a barrel foisted upon us by the greedy oligopolistic oil companies. Combined it means that farmers are scrambling for every square inch they can get a plow in; and further it means that sales of chemicals for crop protection and management should continue at an above average pace.

Last week, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio bought American Vanguard Corp (AVD), a diversified specialty and agricultural products company. Its products include insecticides, fungicides, growth regulators and soil fumigants for corn and cotton. Last year, earnings were negatively impacted as farmers shifted acreage from cotton to corn, causing inventory problems in the company’s cotton insecticide; and the stock got whacked. However, the company has a fine record of profit growth, averaging 20%+ annually over the last 10 years; this should continue as the demand from the corn market continues to grow. AVD is also expected to make acquisitions that will contribute to profit increases.

EPS: 2006 $.57, 2007 $.75, 2008 $.90; DVD: $.07, YLD .5%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AVD

And to help make the point, a review of the farm bill:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-farmbill25jun25,0,1804096.story?coll=la-opinion-leftrail

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Market Analysis

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

Iberdola is acquiring Energy East for $4.5 billion in cash

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