6/11/08

Economics

a disruption in global oil supplies (It is not the price of oil but its availability that will cause severe economic dislocation.).

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=297904745555169

More data on ‘income inequality’:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/we-move-up-and-down-quintiles-so-what.html

Money supply and inflation:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/inflation-with-no-growth-in-m1-for-3.html

Politics

Domestic

Obama’s new economic policy director:

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/obama-nomics/79678/

Dick Morris gives a pretty good analysis of what Obama needs to do to solve one of his biggest problems: past associations:

http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/06/10/how-obama-can-win/#more-358

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

Yesterday was like Monday: the Averages didn’t do much but there was a lot of volatility among stocks in different economic sectors. That said, another day without a follow through to last Friday’s big price drop is better than a sharp stick in the eye. This is not to say that current investor schizophrenia won’t give way to another spasm of selling; but it is to say that the longer it doesn’t, especially in the face of the continuing volatility in the interest rate, oil, gold and foreign equity markets and the longer the Averages hold a defined support level (DJIA April 2008 low-12263; S&P April 2008 low-1325/1982 to present uptrend-1317), the less likely that it will.

That is not a statement filled with great hope; but the question is, given our strategy of buying the dips and selling the advances, how many more days do we do nothing based on our concern over a resumption of a stock price decline versus adding to our investment position based on our assumption that the Market could bounce off its current support level? My solution, as always, is to split the difference thus insuring that we will be at least partially correct. So this Morning at the Market open, our Portfolios will make some very minor additions to its holdings.

Fundamental

Subscriber Alert

Visit www.strategic-stock-investments.com to see what we are buying/selling today.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge

Portfolio 1 (85.1%): Sold: Colgate Palmolive

Bought: Canon

Positions: Automatic Data Products, 3M, Johnson Controls,

Canon

Portfolio 2 (87.2%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: Franklin Resources, Graco, Ecolabs,

Nike

Portfolio 3 (91.9%): Sold: Mastercard

Bought: ConocoPhillips

Positions: Emerson Electric Ross Stores. ConocoPhillips, Federated Investors

Portfolio 4 (80.9%): Sold: Mastercard

Bought: Walgreen

Positions: Linear Technologies, Blackrock, Peabody Energy, Walgreen

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

A positive write up on State Street (Dividend Growth Buy List):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/80904-state-street-added-to-goldman-s-conviction-buy-list

Staples (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) buys Corporate Express for $2.65 billion.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/staples-buys-corporate-express-for-265b/20080611064809990001

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

6/10/08

Economics

In case you missed this story, another ‘do as I say, not as I do’:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/senate-votes-to-privatize-its-failing.html

More data and some perspective on US employment:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/adjusted-for-labor-force-todays-jobless.html

More data on untappable US oil/gas reserves:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/us-policies-put-most-us-oil-off-limits.html

Politics

Domestic

Since Obama has emphasized judgment over experience, his first judgment call seems to be fair game. This from Mickey Kaus--no Republican he:

http://www.slate.com/id/2192801/#embarrassed

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

The rebound in stock prices yesterday took the DJIA (12280) back above its April 2008 low (12263); the S&P (1361) did not regain its August 2007 low (1370) though it remains above its April 2008 low (1325) and the lower boundary of the 1982 to present up trend line (1317). All in all, not a bad day; but while, in my opinion, it re-sets the DJIA trading range to 12263-13133, it leaves the lower boundary of an S&P trading range uncertain. That need not be terribly negative; it just leaves a lingering uncertainty.

Added to that is that despite the Averages being up, whole sectors got really whacked hard yesterday suggesting that the internal strength of Market is not as sound as the performance of the indices would have us believe. As a result, I think discretion remains the better part of valor. Tomorrow, our Portfolios do nothing.

A look at stock prices after a spike in bond yields:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/06/largest-one-day.html

Fundamental

A new ‘misery’ index from Bespoke:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/06/bespokes-tortur.html

Subscriber Alert

Go to www.strategic-stock-investments.com and see what we are buying/selling today.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge

Portfolio 1 (82.8%): Sold: General Dynamics, T Rowe Price

Bought: Colgate Palmolive, Johnson Controls

Positions: Automatic Data Products, 3M, Johnson Controls,

Colgate Palmolive

Portfolio 2 (84.4%): Sold: Luxoticca, Schwab

Bought: Nike, Ecolabs

Positions: Franklin Resources, Graco, Ecolabs,

Nike

Portfolio 3 (90.7%): Sold: Schwab

Bought: Mastercard

Positions: Emerson Electric Ross Stores. Mastercard, Federated Investors

Portfolio 4 (79.6%): Sold: Home Depot,

Bought: Linear Technologies

Positions: Linear Technologies, Blackrock, Peabody Energy, Mastercard

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

6/9/08

Economics

fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.). The new budget resolution:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm1946.cfm

protectionism (Free trade is a major positive for world and US economic growth.) Canada signs Columbia free trade agreement:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020705.php

More data on Friday’s non farm payrolls report:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/is-min-wage-behind-50-jobless-rate-jump.html

Politics

Domestic

More on Obama on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020689.php

Obama on Jerusalem:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/126429

Obama on the Jewish lobby:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020712.php

International War Against Radical Islam

On the firing of those two Air Force generals:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTk4ODFiNWRiY2ExOWU1MTRiMjkyOTdiZTcwZWZlMjk=

More bad news for al Qaeda:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/world/asia/09terror.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Analysis on the recently released report from the Senate’s Committee on Intelligence:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020706.php

The Market

Technical

Some fun with statistics: Big Brown, the Triple Crown and stock prices:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/06/triple-crown-an.html

If Barron’s is correct, stock price action over the next couple of days will be critical:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/barrons-asks-be.html

Fundamental

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge

Portfolio 1 (82.1%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: Automatic Data Products, 3M, T Rowe Price,

General Dynamics

Portfolio 2 (85.4%): Sold: none

Bought: none

Positions: Franklin Resources, Graco, Schwab,

Luxottica

Portfolio 3 (90.6%): Sold: Illinois Tool Works

Bought: Emerson Electric

Positions:Emerson Electric Ross Stores. Schwab, Federated Investors

Portfolio 4 (78.2%): Sold: Wells Fargo

Bought: Mastercard

Positions: Home Depot, Blackrock, Peabody Energy,

Mastercard

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands