4/30/08

Economics

The dollar and the Phillips Curve:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120943024074251369.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

The current economic mess:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWYwMzY3ZTRhNzVhNDNiNDc1M2RiMzY5ZWUxYTNlYjI=

A look at housing prices nationwide:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/home-prices-fal.html

fiscal profligacy (Government spending as a percent of GDP is too high and the looming explosion in entitlement expenditures will make it worse. There is no good solution save spending discipline.) Our new farm bill:

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/04/farm_bill_is_a_disaster.php

First quarter gross domestic product was reported this morning. A graphic look:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/04/no-recession_30.html

Politics

Domestic

Hillary on pork:

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2008/04/hillarys_love_for_pork.php

International War Against Radical Islam

The Market

Technical

A technical look at this rally:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/market-rallies.html

Fundamental

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Johnson Controls (JCI-$36) has risen above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, JCI is being Removed from the Dividend Growth Buy List. The Dividend Growth Portfolio will continue to Hold this stock.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JCI

The stock price of Mastercard (MA-$274) has risen above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Therefore, it is being Removed from the Aggressive Growth Buy List. The Aggressive Growth Portfolio will continue to Hold MA.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MA

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Avon Products (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $.43 versus $.34 recorded in the comparable 2007 quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AVP

Sysco (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported its third fiscal quarter earnings per share of $.40 versus expectations of $.39 an $.35 reported in its 2007 fiscal third quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SYY

Mastercard (Aggressive Growth Portfolio) reported its first quarter earnings per share of $3.01 versus expectations of $2.00 and $1.15 recorded in its 2007 first quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MA

BP (High Yield Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $2.09 versus expectations of $1.74 and $1.44 reported in last years first quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BP

Proctor & Gamble (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported its third fiscal quarter earnings per share of $.82 versus estimates of $.81 and $.74 recorded in the comparable 2007 fiscal quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PG

UGI (Dividend Growth Portfolio) reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.17 versus $1.12 reported in 2007’s first quarter. The company also raised its annual dividend per share from $.72 to $.77.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UGI

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

4/29/08

Economics

A not very promising assessment from a housing insider:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/kbh-home-prices.html

An updated look at credit spreads:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/04/high-yield-spre.html

Inflation statistics:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/04/are-inflationary-concerns-inflated.html

Politics

Domestic

International War Against Radical Islam

From Iraq the Model:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/are-sadr-and-al-qaeda-teaming-up-in-iraq/

The Market

Technical

Fundamental

To date 55% of the S&P companies have reported first quarter earnings; ex financials, their profits are up 11%.

Taxes and stock prices:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2008-04-27-tax-capital-gains-stocks_N.htm

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Quaker Chemical (KWR-$32) continues to trade above its Sell Half Range. Yesterday, Alliance Resource Ptrs (ARLP-$42) traded into its Sell Half Range. Therefore, this morning at the Market open, the High Yield Portfolio will Sell sufficient shares of each holding to reduce it to its original size (2.5% of the value of the High Yield Portfolio).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KWR

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ARLP

Aggressive Growth Buy List

Company Close 4/28 Buy Value Range

Abercrombie & Fitch $75.43 $67-77

Ecolabs 46.75 43-49

FactSet Research 60.72 58-67

Graco Co 40.50 36-41

Mastercard 242.50 218-250

Medtronic 50.34 44-51

Microsoft 28.99 26-30

Rockwell Collins 64.06 61-70

SAP Inc 51.20 46-54

Staples 22.60 20-23

Company Highlight

FactSet Research (FDS) supplies financial and economic data to the global investment community through 200 databases with information on tens of thousands of companies, multiple stock markets and governments. The company earns a 25%+ return on equity and has grown earnings and dividends in excess 25% over the last five years. FDS should continue its above average performance as a result of:

(1) its portfolio analytics system is the industry leader; because of its extensive product development and strong client relationships, FDS has created a high barrier to entry and should, at a minimum, grow with the financial services industry,

(2) its ability to sell additional products to existing customers such as coverage of corporate bonds and fixed income derivative securities as well as products for investment banking, plan sponsors and corporate finance,

(3) expansion into the international securities markets,

(4) partnering with other financial services firms, such a Reuters, to further increase its product line,

(5) strategic acquisitions such as TrueCourse, a leading database provider of corporate takeover defense profiles, and Derivative Solution Inc, a supplier of portfolio management software for trading and investing in the bond markets.

FDS is rated B++ by Value Line, has no debt, recently approved a $125 million stock buy back and its stock yields about 1%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FDS

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands

4/28/08

Economics

a rising tax and regulatory burden (Government has never proven that it could solve economic problems efficiently or satisfactorily.) More on the economics of ethanol:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTBiOTY2ZTAyMWQwYTJkMDIwMmFiZGY4YzAxM2VkNjc=&w=MA==

And this just in:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzEzMzc0NWMzOTI2MjRhNjc4NzFjZTk1ZDQ1ZTA4Mzk=

Auto prices and inflation:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/04/what-is-remarkable-and-amazing-is-that.html

Politics

Domestic

The Democrats and universal healthcare:

http://www.stephenbainbridge.com/punditry/comments/the_silent_majority_and_the_democrats_backing_off_healthcare_reform/

International War Against Radical Islam

Another Obama foreign affairs advisor:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/04/020372.php

And confusion over his Iraq policy:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/04/020368.php

And of course W’s pathetically inept policy on North Korea:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzZmYzI4MjM2YWZkOGMxMzViM2FhMDYwNDU2MGYxM2Q=

The Market

Technical

Fundamental

An interview with Peter Bernstein:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120916592206646195.html?mod=home_we_banner_left

Subscriber Alert

The stock price of Canon (CAJ-$52) has traded into its Buy Value Range. Therefore, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. The Dividend Growth Portfolio will not buy shares of CAJ at this time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CAJ

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More Cash in Investors’ Hands